The 2010/2011 Ashes in Australia represents the first time in over twenty years the England team would feel they're an even chance of winning the series away from home. With the tumbling form of the Australian side and the rise in experience and consistency of the England team, the previously monumental gap between the two sides has closed. Even Australia's home ground advantage seemingly diminished. With the teams so closely matched the question thus remains; who will claim the Ashes?
The Last Time They Met: English Redemption
While Ricky Ponting's men were the favourites for the 2009 Ashes tournament in England, a closely fought battle saw the home side regain the trophy they'd lost in Australia. In one of the closest five-match Ashes battles in history, England won 2 - 1, snaring the last test of the series after a brilliant bowling performance from Stuart Broad knocked the Australians over cheaply. Earlier in the series, the Aussies would've felt more than frustrated by their inability to win the first drawn test, where only a single wicket stood between them and victory. In the end that wicket made all the difference. The close result of 2009 indicates the approaching Ashes series will be further closely contested, with very similar line-ups to do battle in 2010 - 2011.
Recent Form: Australia on the Slide?
Australia have slumped to fifth in the test rankings, after a recent series loss to India. This follows their first loss in a test match to Pakistan in nearly fifteen years in July. England, on the other hand, has been on the rise. While not necessarily meteoric, the English boasts recent successes, including the 20/20 World Cup tournament. This victory represents England's first ever tournament win in cricket history, and further signifies what appears to be a change in momentum and attitude. Australia, on the other hand, is showing signs their previous reputation for success is becoming shaky. They had a triumphant summer last year in Australia, with victories over the West Indies and Pakistan, and they further reached the final of the 20/20 World Cup in 2011, so their form has been better than reported. The Aussie's loss to India is also understandable as few teams taste success playing in the sub continent's harshest testing ground; in the end the Ashes will clearly prove whether or not the Australians are actually on a downward spiral. They rarely taste defeat at home, so a loss would be devastating.
Key Players: All Eyes on the Bowlers
While the Warne/McGrath era has ended for Australia, it's becoming clearer the bowlers will be the key difference in this Ashes series. On the flat, dry Australian pitches, the English bowlers will be challenged to find the sort of movement that troubles Australia when they travel to the UK, and it will be interesting to see how effective the likes of Stuart Broad and James Anderson will be on this occasion. Ironically, it may be an English spinner who plays a key role; Graeme Swann is on the rise and in form, and he threatens to trouble an Australian side that lacks spin options. This difference will be especially telling in spin-friendly Sydney. Similarly, for Australia, bowlers will play the key, and Ben Hilfenhaus is a crucial element. He was the leading wicket-taker in the last Ashes series and has been missing through injury since, but will return for the summer action. Similarly the form of Mitchell Johnson and Shane Watson with the ball will be a vital indicator - if they fire, Australia should win, but the form of that pair has been fading lately.
Who Will Win the Ashes?
It will likely be a very close affair. On paper the Aussies are more experienced and have that oh-so-important home ground advantage. But the Australians also look like a team who've lost all belief; they're no longer able to crawl over the line, time and again; instead they've started to stumble short of it. England, on the other hand, no longer look like a team likely to capitulate under pressure. The lack of form of key batsman Kevin Pietersen may be an issue, but overall a new-found confidence and (finally) a world-class spinner make England seem a more formidable opponent. On current form, England should win, but only just.
